The recent three-week rally of 4.5% in the USD/JPY, from its 1 July 2025 low of 142.68 to the 16 July 2025 high of 149.19 (a three-month peak), has reached a potential inflection zone of 149.00/149.60, where the next probable move is a decline back towards the bottom of a three-month ascending sideways range configuration in place since 22 April 2025.
USD/JPY bearish reaction at range resistance
Fig 1: USD/JPY medium-term trend as of 22 July 2025 (Source: TradingView)
Preferred trend bias (1-3 weeks)
Bearish bias with key medium-term pivotal resistance at 149.00/149.60 for the next supports to come in at 145.55, 145.85 (also the 20-day moving average), and 145.20 (also the 50-day moving average).
Key elements
- The key inflection zone/resistance of 140.00/149.60 on the USD/JPY is defined by a medium-range top in place since May 12, 2025, the 200-day moving average, and a Fibonacci extension level.
- The 4-hour RSI momentum indicator has traced out a recent bearish divergence condition at its overbought region from 15 July to 18 July, which suggests that the upside momentum of the up move in the price actions of USD/JPY from 1 July to 16 July has waned.
- Price actions have gapped down below the minor ascending channel support from 1 July low on Monday, 21 July Asian session in reaction to Sunday’s Japan upper house election results, retested pull-back resistance of the former minor ascending channel support before it inched low by 0.9% to print an intraday low of 147.08 during the US session.
Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 weeks)
A clearance above 149.60 shifts the focus back to the bulls for a range breakout scenario to propel the USD/JPY higher for the next resistances to come in at 150.40 and 151.15/30 (medium-term swing highs of 3 March/27 March 2025).