The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% in July, in line with the consensus forecast in Bloomberg and a tick lower than June. On a twelve-month basis, CPI was up 2.7% (unchanged from the month prior). Energy costs (-1.1% m/m) more than reversed June’s gain, while food prices were flat on the month as a … Read more

Markets So far it’s a slow burn, rather than a big bang when it comes to the feared inflationary impact from US President Trump’s trade policy. Monthly headline and core US CPI inflation printed bang in line with expectations at respectively +0.2% M/M and +0.3% M/M. Annual reading showed a stabilization on the overall level … Read more

Canadian Dollar edged lower in early US trading Friday following a mixed labor market report that offered little clarity on the BoC’s next move. The set of data suggests that slack is building, but not yet enough to trigger a policy response. BoC left its benchmark rate unchanged at 2.75% last week for the third … Read more

Last week’s FX leaderboard was dominated by growth-linked and higher-yield currencies, with Sterling, Aussie, and Kiwi outpacing the field. At the other end, traditional safe havens found themselves out of favor, with Yen and Swiss Franc bringing up the rear. Sterling’s climb came on the back of a narrow 5–4 BoE rate cut vote and … Read more

Markets began the week in tight ranges, with traders reluctant to take big positions. The August 12 deadline for a US–China trade deal is a major headline risk. For now, markets are betting heavily on an extension, with another 90-day truce seen as the most probable outcome. Still, the threat of escalation lingers. US President … Read more

Dollar rebounded strongly as US session begins, despite a day largely devoid of fresh headlines or major data. Traders are looking ahead to a week dominated by trade, geopolitical, and central bank risks, particular with the August 12 US–China tariff deadline now in sharp focus. So far, US President Donald Trump has offered little clarity … Read more

Yen slumped further across the board in Asia as Japanese stocks surged, with the Nikkei charging to all-time highs after the holiday break. Optimism in Tokyo is being driven by expectations that more listed companies will upgrade earnings outlooks, with the perceived impact of US tariffs on Japanese exporters now seen as limited. Investor sentiment … Read more

Dollar came under renewed selling pressure in early US session following the release of July’s CPI report. Equity markets responded positively, with stock futures pushing higher as investors focused on the softer-than-expected headline reading, largely downplaying the firmer core figure. Market reaction suggests the report does little to disrupt expectations for the Fed to deliver … Read more

Overview The winter of discontent has descended on the New Zealand economy since May. In some respects, business and consumer sentiment has soured, raising questions on exactly when the long-awaited pickup in the economy will become broader based and more sustainable. Parts of the economy are doing well and there is exuberance in the primary … Read more

In focus today Today we get Swedish flash estimates for inflation in July, where we expect that CPIF will rise to 3.17% (RB 2.50%) and that CPIFxE will decline to 3.06% (RB 2.84%). A ‘low’ core number would support expectations of an H2 rate cut given that real activity data continues to underdeliver. A ‘high … Read more