The August survey pointed to broadly unchanged levels of optimism, still difficult current conditions, and a slight easing of inflation pressures.
Key results, Aug 2025
- Business confidence: 49.7 (Prev: 47.8)
- Expectations for own trading activity: 38.7 (Prev: 40.6)
- Activity vs same month one year ago: 1.3 (Prev: 5.9)
- Inflation expectations: 2.63% (Prev: 2.68%)
- Pricing intentions: 42.5 (Prev: 43.5)
The key forward-looking indicators of general business confidence and own activity expectations were little changed in the August ANZ business opinion survey, thus remaining below the cyclical peaks reached late last year but still well above average levels.
Confidence was down a little in the agriculture sector this month (indeed activity expectations were at their least positive level in 12 months) but was firmer in the retail sector. There was little change in indicators of investment or hiring intentions, which also remain at firmer-than-average levels.
It is worth noting that this survey was in the field prior to last week’s unexpected RBNZ pivot. However, the ANZ comments that there was no generalised improvement in those responses that came in following the RBNZ’s meeting.
Despite the continued optimism for the year ahead, firms continue to report that current conditions are tough. A net 1% of firms said that their activity was up on the same time last year, compared to 6% in July – that’s the weakest reading since March. Firms also continue to report a decline in staffing, especially in the construction sector.
The survey’s pricing indicators moved favourably this month. Firms’ year-ahead inflation expectations edged down to a 5-month low of 2.63% (slightly below the long-term average) and the proportion expressing an intention to raise their own selling prices fell to the lowest level since November last year. Firms also reported slightly less intense cost pressure, with reported wage growth at the slowest pace since the question was first asked in 2022.