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The Canadian dollar continues to drift but that could change with the release of Canadian and US inflation later today. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3687, down 0.13% on the day. Canadian, US CPI expected to have accelerated in June It promises to be an interesting day as both Canada and … Read more

GBP/USD falls below SMAs but one last opportunity for rebound remains. Short-term signals point to oversold conditions; eyes on 1.3400. GBP/USD extended its decline below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey expressed a willingness to implement larger rate cuts if the labor market shows signs of weakness, according … Read more

Headline CPI inflation for June came in at 1.9% year-on-year (y/y), heating up from the 1.7% print in May and in line with expectations. The uptick was due to gasoline prices falling to a lesser extent in June (-13.4% y/y vs. -15.5% in April) and faster price growth for passenger vehicles and furniture. Prices for … Read more

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% in June, in line with the consensus forecast in Bloomberg and an acceleration from May’s gain of 0.1% m/m. On a twelve-month basis, CPI was up 2.7% (from 2.4% in May). Energy costs (0.9% m/m) turned higher last month – following a decline in May – while food … Read more

Market reactions have been very muted and mixed, even if the CPI report came out with a small but positive surprise. For those who are discovering the number, US Headline CPI came in as expected (0.287 unrounded Headline vs 0.30% expected). The Core number was however the more welcomed surprise, coming in at 0.2% (0.227%) … Read more

Markets This morning, it initially looked that risk premia at the ultra-long end of the yield curve could remain the focus for markets. The Japanese 10-y yield tested the cycle /YTD top levels near 1.6%. The 30-y yield even touched an all-time top near 3.21%. However, this time were no spillovers to markets outside Japan. … Read more

Sterling came under heavy pressure today, tumbling sharply alongside a selloff in UK government bonds. The 10-year gilt yield surged above 4.65%, up 20 basis points from levels seen just two days ago. The moves came after Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government backtracked on key parts of its welfare bill to avoid a major Labour … Read more

Dollar is pausing its recent slide as markets brace for today’s Non-Farm Payrolls report, but its recovery remains shallow. Barring its gains against the troubled British Pound, the greenback remains broadly weaker against major currencies for the week. Traders are increasingly wary of a downside surprise in the jobs report, which could revive speculation that … Read more

Dollar rebounded in early US session following the better-than-expected June non-farm payrolls report, further reversing much of the week’s earlier weakness. While not a blowout, the report showed a labor market that remains fundamentally resilient, and significantly reduces pressure on the Fed to pull the trigger at the July meeting. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and … Read more

Dollar’s rebound on upbeat US jobs and services data proved short-lived, as the greenback faded again in early Friday trading. The greenback failed to hold gains amid a broader risk-on tone with both S&P 500 and NASDAQ closed at fresh record highs. Strong employment data gave policymakers room to wait, especially as they assess the … Read more